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| Afghanistan is a failing state, needs a Marshall Plan: Ghani |
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| LONDON (NNI): The Obama Presidency provides a second chance toget Afghanistan right. The President-elect has made it clear a stableAfghanistan is his priority. That stability will only come when Afghanistan can govern itself.
To reachthat point, three key assets must be harnessed: first, American forces andresources; second, the instruments of national and international power; andthird and most crucially, the Afghan people, who are as eager to see therestoration of order and justice.
These were the views expressed by formerAfghanistan Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, author of “Fixing Failed States”and published in The Independent.
The current impetus for a new perspective in US interventions comes from themilitary, in the form of the new counter-insurgency doctrine.
Building onlessons learned by the British in Malaysia and the French in Algeria in the1950s and 1960s, a group of thinkers organised by General Petraeus in the UShave formulated the thesis that the struggle for the people is the centralissue in any counter-insurgency campaign.
While 20 per cent of the campaign might centre on use of force, 80 per centdepends on political and economic efforts. Under this doctrine, thedefinition of partners rests on the litmus test of dedication to the people. The incoming administration must translate this doctrine into a focusedstrategy for Afghanistan. This will require a fresh look at the polity, theeconomy, and foreign aid.
Afghanistan’s first chance was in 2001, when the UN General Assembly and theSecurity Council resolved to create a legitimate government in Afghanistan.At that time, Afghans were united in requesting the deployment of forces toliberate and protect them and looked to the international community to solve20 years of conflict.
This open moment was squandered by a double failure:the Afghan political elite could not overcome their differences to becomefounding fathers of a nation; and international actors were fragmented andunable to build legitimate institutions.
This created space forcriminalisation of the economy, which fuelled the insurgency and corrodedpublic sector integrity. Afghanistan has slipped 60 places in TransparencyInternational’s global corruption index.
The spread of corruption and bad governance imposes injustices, and oftendaily hardships, on ordinary Afghans, whose hopes for better lives arefrustrated by the lack of services.
These citizens want their current andfuture governments to be accountable.Containing the threat of narcotics to the region and the world requires abold economic approach.
The break point between illegal and legal economiesis a legal income of $4 per capita per day. In order to reach this thresholdin Afghanistan, three major sectors of the economy must be revitalised:mining, agriculture, and services. Afghanistan is rich in minerals including copper, iron, marble, chromite,manganese and emeralds. With good governance in place, these assets cangenerate funds.
Connecting farmers to markets through careful investment, organisation and infrastructure would provide livelihoods in rural areas.In urban areas, a fresh approach to municipal governance could mobilise theservice industry, particularly construction, to create jobs. If Europewanted to do more, a package of trade and enterprise partnerships could beas significant as any commitment of troops. And in the medium and long term,the most effective investment of all will be education and vocationaltraining programs for the rising generations.
Used for this purpose, onemonth of current military expenditures could change the life opportunitiesof five generations of Afghans.The instruments currently used by the international community inAfghanistan, however, are part of the problem.
The system can be madeeffective and efficient by eliminating the tens of thousands of scatteredefforts, which create waste and parallel structures, and instead unifyingforeign aid behind the single instrument of the Afghan national budget.
The government and its international partners should delineate a set ofobjectives to deliver a dividend to the population and establish clear rulesfor accountability and transparency, including the creation of jointdecision-making committees that bring international figures together withAfghan civil society and business oversight.
This kind of partnership willrequire a new design for the use of aid, by a group similar to that whichdesigned the Marshall Plan.The present crisis was not inevitable, but rather the result of avoidablemissteps. The Afghan population is still waiting, still hoping for anapproach to answer their aspirations for a stable and just order. With thathope as its foundation, the right approach can bring Afghanistan to truestability. |
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